Abstract
Red Flags: How Economic Stagnation Will Affect Chinese Security Policy
Michael Beckley, Tufts UniversityMost discussion on the United States’ China policy focuses on the implications of a rising China. This paper, by contrast, considers some of the challenges that could be posed by an economically stagnating China. How would a severe and sustained slowdown in economic growth affect China’s military modernization and foreign security policy? Would military conflict between China and the United States become more or less likely? This paper addresses these questions by comparing China to past rising great powers that experienced secular economic stagnation.
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